8 Ways in Which the Human Condition is Improving

This post deals with some of the core ideas of ilookforwardto.com. The idea that the human condition is steadily improving, at an increasing rate, year by year, despite how it may seem. Here are eight indications of how life is getting better all the time for us, the citizens of the world.

Recently I've been reading Matt Ridley's book The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves, and the fact-based picture of humanity's bright future he paints therein gave much inspiration to this article.

1. World average GDP per capita (in real terms) is steadily increasing.

Look at the graphs. Are we approaching an economic singularity? There was no worldwide recession in 2008-2009, because as the graph shows, per capita global GDP, although it plateaued that year, didn’t actually recess. It may be portrayed that way by western media, but both India and China, which together have nearly 2.5 out of a world population of roughly 6.8 billion, posted almost double digit growth, like the recession never happened.

2. The number of people living in extreme poverty (both as a proportion of the human population and in absolute numbers) is declining.

The eradication of extreme poverty will happen in our lifetime. In 1990, 42% of the world’s population lived on less than $1.25 (constant 2000 dollars, PPP). In 2005, that number had fallen to 25%. The UN estimates that by 2020, only 10% of world citizens will live in absolute poverty.

3. World average life expectancy is steadily increasing.

In 1900, average world life expectancy was around 40 years. In 1960, it was 52 years. Today, it’s 69 years. Japanese women have the highest average life expectancy at 86 years. Average world life expectancy has been increasing by roughly three months every year since 1870, and although every year for the last 50 years we’ve been told this will reach a ceiling, it hasn’t. The development shows no signs of stopping.

4. World average infant mortality rates are steadily declining.

  More and more children live to see their first birthday. In the 1950s, 15% of all the world’s children died before they turned one year old. Today, only 4.5% do. The UN predicts that this number will fall to  2.3 % by 2045, although that is, in my opinion, a very conservative estimate.

5. Urbanization rates are increasing.

In 2008, for the first time in history, half the world’s population is living in cities.  In 1900, only 13% did, and only 29% in 1950. This figure is likely to rise to 70% by 2030. Urbanization is good for many reasons. It relieves the stress on natural areas, concentrating people into cities. People draw many advantages from living in cities, such as better access to health services, schools and better employment opportunities. You may have a Thoreauian romanticized image of life in the countryside, but ask the 400 million Chinese who moved to cities in the last 30 years if they think they’d be better off in the village, and you’ll get a resounding NO. They moved for a reason.

6. Literacy is increasing worldwide.

World illiteracy as a proportion of world population was halved between 1970 and 2005. Halved! In 1950, only 50% of the world could read and write, and by 2030 estimates say 90% will have these abilities.

7. The number of people with access to the internet is increasing.

Ten years ago, only 350 million people had access to the internet, a market penetration of around 6%. By the end of this year, there will be more than 2 billion internet users, which means roughly 29% of the world has access to internet. Estimates show that by 2020, some 72% of the world’s population will have access to internet, which, using the UN’s population estimate of 7.3 billion for 2020, means the world will have some 5.2 billion internet users. 5.2 billion humans with access to infinite information, education, and by extension, employment opportunities.

8. Increasingly, the denizens of the world have access to safe drinking water.

The industrialized world has had levels of access of 100% for decades, and the developing world, despite what you may think, does not lag far behind: In 1970, only 30% of people in developing nations had access to safe water, 71% in 1990, 79% in 2000 and 84% in 2004. The UN estimates that by 2030, 98% of the world’s population will have access to potable water.

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