[Nameless One]

We've had a lot of global warming denialist articles shared in recent months so here's one from the other side… it's pure alarmism but damn is it hard to argue with!
http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/21/hadley-study-warns-of-catastrophic-5%C2%B0c-warming-by-2100-on-current-emissions-path/

In a nutshell, virtually all of the dire studies that report all manner of ill effects from GHG increase assume concentrations of 450 to 700 ppmv (currently we're at 385 ppmv and prior to the industrial revolution it was 280 ppmv) whereas, given the current sorry state of action to reduce emissions, we're already looking at the extreme upper level of emission scenarios (1000 ppmv by 2,100 AD). That's bad news… it's like saying all the alarming stuff you've heard is only, shall we say, the melting tip of the iceberg…

Thoughts? Perspective?

[zensphere]

Interesting article.

I wonder how accurate our current models of climate interactions are. I think I understand that the large scale impact on the global climate can be modeled reasonably accurately, but do we (and can we?) know how the distribution of weather patterns will shift as a result?

I also wonder what impact a massive planet-wide reforestation project (not that that's likely to happen) would have on the projected climate change models.

It just seems like such a huge, dynamic, and complex system… any reasonable simplification of the issues involved would be appreciated.

[PookztA]

Basilisk,

Would you say that the following quote is a brief yet accurate summary to convey to others the reality of Global Warming and Climate Change?

“Global Warming is real, and it is happening faster than ever because of human emissions and activities, but the extent at which humans are accelerating Global Warming has yet to be precicely determined.

It is clear though, that humans are accelerating the warming of our climate, at least to some significant degree.”

If you feel that I could improve my summary, please let me know. There are many folks who are paranoid about Climate Change due to the Carbon Tax policies that have come about, and many think that Global Warming / Climate Change is a big scam to tax us. I am not sure about the policy, for I have not yet looked into it for myself, but I figured I would ask for your help with clarifying my understanding of human's influence on global warming.

thanks for your help,

-Abe

[Ascension]

Just a quick note, I saw an article about a week ago on digg that postulated that the “tipping point” for the climate might be something that happens quickly and unexpectedly.

From an engineer's point of view, I see warning/informing people of this situation a much smaller task than coming up with a means to stop it (or at least slow it down for the time being). I'm hoping that since this summer I will pass the 3 years with a job mark (so many companies in this field won't take engineers with less than 3 years experience) that I can possibly get a job working with renewable energy.

[Pauldo]

It snowed heavy for about 20 minutes outside my window in Austin.  What the hell!  I moved to escape that shite.

[PookztA]

I'm hoping that since this summer I will pass the 3 years with a job mark (so many companies in this field won't take engineers with less than 3 years experience) that I can possibly get a job working with renewable energy.

woa cool! good luck KO, hope it works out

[Nameless One]

I wonder how accurate our current models of climate interactions are. I think I understand that the large scale impact on the global climate can be modeled reasonably accurately, but do we (and can we?) know how the distribution of weather patterns will shift as a result?

I also wonder what impact a massive planet-wide reforestation project (not that that's likely to happen) would have on the projected climate change models.

It just seems like such a huge, dynamic, and complex system… any reasonable simplification of the issues involved would be appreciated.

Opinions vary about the accuracy of various models of course… but there are a lot of strong predictions about what regions will experience more or less precipitation, where soil moisture is expected to decrease (with a corresponding increase in surface heating due to a lack of evaporative cooling), and where temperatures are expected to actually drop (the North Atlantic basin and Western Europe in particular). I think it is probably reasonable to expect that the accuracy of the various models will decrease as you scale down to the regional level but climate is about large-scale trends–and it is my impression that we have a fairly good idea about how most of that works (with cloud feedbacks remaining extremely difficult to model).

Reforestation has already taken place on a mass scale, particularly in the developed world. North America was stripped bare of timber but many forests have since regrown, sucking up atmospheric carbon in the process. This is offset by drastic increases in tropical deforestation of course. Interesting note: since the albedo of forest canopies is lower than that of the grass and scrubland that typically replace them the end result of reforestation is a slight warming increase. This somewhat offsets the gains that can be made by reforestation. (Not that we shouldn't do it though!)

[PookztA]

Basilisk,

Would you say that the following quote is a brief yet accurate summary to convey to others the reality of Global Warming and Climate Change?

“Global Warming is real, and it is happening faster than ever because of human emissions and activities, but the extent at which humans are accelerating Global Warming has yet to be precicely determined.

It is clear though, that humans are accelerating the warming of our climate, at least to some significant degree.”

If you feel that I could improve my summary, please let me know. There are many folks who are paranoid about Climate Change due to the Carbon Tax policies that have come about, and many think that Global Warming / Climate Change is a big scam to tax us. I am not sure about the policy, for I have not yet looked into it for myself, but I figured I would ask for your help with clarifying my understanding of human's influence on global warming.

thanks for your help,

-Abe

Kevin or Basilisk,

can either of you help me out with this? want to make sure I have a good summary of human's role in climate change understood so I can share it with climate change deniers when I encounter them.

Would you say my above summary is accurate?

Thanks for your help,

-Abe

[zensphere]

I wonder how accurate our current models of climate interactions are. I think I understand that the large scale impact on the global climate can be modeled reasonably accurately, but do we (and can we?) know how the distribution of weather patterns will shift as a result?

I also wonder what impact a massive planet-wide reforestation project (not that that's likely to happen) would have on the projected climate change models.

It just seems like such a huge, dynamic, and complex system… any reasonable simplification of the issues involved would be appreciated.

Opinions vary about the accuracy of various models of course… but there are a lot of strong predictions about what regions will experience more or less precipitation, where soil moisture is expected to decrease (with a corresponding increase in surface heating due to a lack of evaporative cooling), and where temperatures are expected to actually drop (the North Atlantic basin and Western Europe in particular). I think it is probably reasonable to expect that the accuracy of the various models will decrease as you scale down to the regional level but climate is about large-scale trends–and it is my impression that we have a fairly good idea about how most of that works (with cloud feedbacks remaining extremely difficult to model).

Reforestation has already taken place on a mass scale, particularly in the developed world. North America was stripped bare of timber but many forests have since regrown, sucking up atmospheric carbon in the process. This is offset by drastic increases in tropical deforestation of course. Interesting note: since the albedo of forest canopies is lower than that of the grass and scrubland that typically replace them the end result of reforestation is a slight warming increase. This somewhat offsets the gains that can be made by reforestation. (Not that we shouldn't do it though!)

Thanks for the clarification, Basilisk. I wonder if the decreased reflectivity of forest is offset at all by increased carbon storage compared to grass/scrublands. Do you know? I'd assume all those massive trunks can sequester more atmospheric carbon, but, well, I've been wrong about things I know next to nothing about before…

[Ascension]

Speaking of bad things happening to tree because of climate change (forgive me for lack of details it was told to me about a year ago).

There is a certain species of asian beetle that lives in the forests of colorado and lives on eating certain trees there. The winter cold used to kill off most of its colonies/cause them to stop eating most of the trees. Due to the increase in mean winter temperature around these parts the beetle has been living longer and thus eating more trees.

So there's another hit to tree CO2 absorption :-/

[Nameless One]

Thanks for the clarification, Basilisk. I wonder if the decreased reflectivity of forest is offset at all by increased carbon storage compared to grass/scrublands. Do you know? I'd assume all those massive trunks can sequester more atmospheric carbon, but, well, I've been wrong about things I know next to nothing about before…

Decreased albedo has no direct effect on carbon sequestration so forests will always draw down more carbon than grasslands. (BTW grass evolved in response to low atmospheric CO2 concentrations some 8-10 million years ago!) The issue with albedo is increased warming as the surface will absorb more incoming radiation (and, consequently, re-radiate it as longwave IR that is then absorbed by GHGs in the atmosphere). As you can imagine, there are some complicated biogeochemical processes at work here, but it isn't as if we know nothing. The studies I've seen in my research and coursework suggest, as noted, that the overall effect of mass reforestation will be a slight warming despite CO2 drawdown. You also have to remember that atmospheric CO2 is going to continue to increase as long as emissions outweigh sink strength (the combined ability of the oceans, the biosphere, and human activities to draw CO2 out of the atmosphere). I'd have to check on whether those reforestation efforts assume a “business as usual” scenario of emissions but it is fairly standard to consider these issues in the context of current rates of increase.

[Nameless One]

Speaking of bad things happening to tree because of climate change (forgive me for lack of details it was told to me about a year ago).

There is a certain species of asian beetle that lives in the forests of colorado and lives on eating certain trees there. The winter cold used to kill off most of its colonies/cause them to stop eating most of the trees. Due to the increase in mean winter temperature around these parts the beetle has been living longer and thus eating more trees.

So there's another hit to tree CO2 absorption :-/

Pests have a HUGE effect… here are the basic details:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_pine_beetle

[PookztA]

Basilisk and Kevin,

Not sure if you two are ignoring me or if you just missed my two requests above which asked for your help in better understanding Global Warming…

It sucks that my attempts to better understand Global Warming are being overlooked here… I am just trying to learn… Please help me out if you can find time.

Here is an article I read today entitled “75 reasons to be skeptical of Global Warming”. I found the article very interesting, but I have not taken the time to look into any of the claims made so I do NOT support or endorse this paper in anyway. Still, I felt like it was relevant enough to share here, and I hope that I can get your opinions on this to see how credible or non-credible it is.

Again, I do not support or endorse this article in anyway, I just felt like perhaps you guys could let me know how right or wrong it is.

Thanks for your help and for checking out how credible this article is. I am very busy studying for tests so that is why I am asking you for your help with this, rather than looking into it for myself.

Thanks,

-Abe

Article: 75 Reason To Be Skeptical About Global Warming:  http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=FUL20100222&articleId=17769

On another note, are my following sentences an accurate summary of global warming in your opinions?  

“Global Warming is real, and it is happening faster than ever because of human emissions and activities, but the extent at which humans are accelerating Global Warming has yet to be precicely determined.

It is clear though, that humans are accelerating the warming of our climate, at least to some significant degree.”

[Ascension]

I was gonna let Alex respond to that since he's far more versed in this than I am.

[PookztA]

I was gonna let Alex respond to that since he's far more versed in this than I am.

ok cool, thanks for letting me know. i am rather paranoid due to all the hate I have received from a small group of individuals in this forum, so I thought maybe you were ignoring me on purpose.

thanks for clarifying why you hadn't responded Kevin.

Thanks,

-Abe

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